Will the Liberal Democrats break their duck and win a parliamentary seat in Northamptonshire?
Liberal Democrat candidate Jonathan Harris says the big unknown is how many disgruntled Tories will break a lifelong habit and vote elsewhere.
No constituency in Northamptonshire has ever chosen a Liberal Democrat to represent them in parliament. The party did run the former Northampton borough council for a spell more than a decade ago, but typically the county’s Westminster representatives have been from the two main parties.
In Daventry, the best the Lib Dems have polled was in 2010 when their candidate came second to Conservative Chris Heaton-Harris. Since then Heaton-Harris has held the seat and made it one of the safest, amassing a 26,000 plus majority in the 2019 election. Although his unexpected decision to not stand again and the implosion of the Tory party, means that just possibly this constituency may be won by someone not sporting a blue rosette.
“I’m disappointed that he stood down, as I was relishing the opportunity to take him on,” says Jonathan Harris, the Liberal Democrat candidate, who is also deputy leader of the Lib Dem group on West Northants Council.
Picked to fight the seat back in January, several months before the snap election was called, he has been out knocking doors since then. Before last year he did not have any Westminster ambitions, but decided he’d stand after taking part in a junior hustings event at Kidsfest in Welford last summer. He says he realised during the questions from the young people that he and Heaton-Harris were ‘poles apart’ and he wanted to challenge him at the ballot box.
It’s Welford where we meet on Tuesday evening, as I accompanied him and his team around the doors while canvassing. As a unitary councillor for the area, he is well-known and throughout the village, the only political party signs I see being displayed on posts and windows are yellow. However with 300 square miles to cover it will be a tall order to get around the county’s largest constituency in geographic terms.
On the doorsteps he says there have been huge numbers of undecided voters, with many clear on just one thing - they won’t be voting Conservative.
Harris says:
“A lot of people are saying they definitely won’t vote Conservative - but that is the big unknown. How many of those people who say they won’t vote Conservative, when they get to the polling station and see the Conservative box there on the ballot paper will break the habit of a lifetime and put their cross elsewhere?”
With only five candidates on the ballot (from Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green and Reform) the residents in the Daventry constituency have the least choice of any of the seven elections being held across Northants.
He continues:
“There are definitely some Reform voters. It is immigration, it is the fear factor. They believe the line that immigration is the cause of all our evils - which of course it isn’t.”
A remainer, he says that Brexit has had a big effect on the constituency, which is largely rural and many farmers, have told him they are frustrated with post EU arrangements and the paperwork that goes with it.
And besides the farmers, the Tories are losing more of their traditional base. Among the doors Harris knocked on Tuesday night, was that of an ex serviceman, who had always voted Tory, but said he could not do so anymore.
He tells me:
“He did ask where I lived and I said Brixworth, and he said ‘that’ll do for me.’
Having lived in the constituency for more than 25 years, Harris hopes that his knowledge of and commitment to the area will gain him some votes.
“I’m not in it to be a career politician and climb up the greasy pole. I want to represent this area, I’m not interested in standing anywhere else.”
Self employed - he runs a consultancy firm with his wife Christine - he has been a councillor since 2019, firstly on Daventry district councillor and is one of the unitary councillors elected to the West unitary in 2021. He is a regular contributor to meetings and is a member of the council’s cross party sustainability group, which has been putting together a climate strategy for the authority.
Welford resident Hilary Hunt, who has voted with the party since the 1970s, said Harris has been an excellent councillor and would make a great constituency MP.
She said:
“The party has been very consistent in their principles over the years and everybody is very principled.”
Asked why he thought his party had done so poorly in the Northants parliamentary elections in the past, he says he is not exactly sure, but one reason could be the election cycles. He says the county is behind the curve a little, as its elections are out of sync with much of England. While the majority of local councils had elections this year - with the Conservatives facing heavy losses in local councils - residents here won’t go to the polls to elect new parish and unitary councillors until next year. He thinks this could be the reason why his party has failed to cut through.
The Conservative candidate Harris is facing and who is probably the favourite to win due to the party’s huge majority, is Stuart Andrew, who has been an MP for Pudsey in Yorkshire since 2010 and was one of those displaced due to last year’s boundary changes.
His social media shows he has been out in the constituency since his selection last month, and has been endorsed by outgoing Chris Heaton-Harris.
We will find out on July 5 whether the anti-conservative rhetoric on the doorsteps in this seemingly forever Tory constituency will deliver someone from another political flavour to Westminster.
Party manifesto
A central plank of the party’s pledges is free care for all. The party, which is led by Ed Davey, is also promising to spend an extra £27bn by 2029 which it says it would raise by measures such as raising levies on banks, reforming capital gains tax and a new aviation duty on frequent fliers. They would invest £1bn in HMRC to crack down on tax avoidance.
On education they would triple the early years pupil premium, which provides extra funding for pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds. There would also under a Lib Dem government be a review of university funding - although the party has not re-committed to its 2010 manifesto pledge that it broke when it entered the coalition in 2010.
They would scrap the current two child limit on child benefit and have an annual review to ensure those receiving universal benefits have enough for people to afford basic items.
On the NHS it says it would give a 62 day guarantee for cancer patients given an urgent referral (this is a current target but is often missed). They would give 16 year olds the vote and bring in proportional representation.
All candidates in the Daventry election are:
Stuart Andrew, The Conservative Party
Scott Cameron, Reform UK
Jonathan Harris, Liberal Democrats
Marian Kimani, Labour Party
Clare Slater, The Green Party
The local factor is what is going to have a huge swing in this election. I do not personally support the Lib Dems as a whole (I have voted for them before) but based on their candidate DID vote for Ana Savage-Gunn in the PFCC elections, having met Jonathan a few times at events he comes across as a very capable local Cllr with a can do attitude, the perfect person you would want for a local MP. With many residents in villages knowing he is local rather than someone parachuted in, existing MP in the county all but ignoring constituents and the Tory vote base crumbling appearing to split in numerous directions to parties like reform, this really is an election where each vote will make a difference.
I am not in his area but really do wish him the best of luck as on paper he seems like the best candidate to represent the locals.
Jonathan is a top fella, Daventry would be best served by him, a local person who will work for his constituents conscientiously!