How was the campaign for you, darling?

A review of the campaign for Northants Police, Fire & Crime Commissioner by Kate Ironside, former political journalist and senior lecturer at the University of Northampton

It’s a mug’s game predicting the outcome of tomorrow’s election for Northamptonshire’s next Police, Fire & Crime Commissioner. For a start, turnout is likely to be excruciatingly low.

There are no helpful council elections happening on the same day to help push voters to the polling stations on what’s forecast to be a day of persistent light rain. If turnout is 20 per cent, the candidates will have done well.

If we look at the big picture, the Conservatives should, in theory, be in a strong position. The Commissioner post, launched in 2012, has always been held here by Conservatives. The Northants electorate has since elected two Conservative-run unitary councils and, at the last general election, returned Conservative MPs for every Northants constituency.

The Conservative PFCC candidate Martyn Emberson, on that basis, should be set fair. But politics has changed significantly since the last PFCC election. Controversy has dogged the Conservatives both nationally and locally.

Labour has demonstrated its ability to convert intoxicating national poll leads into hard votes in the ballot box locally. It won the Wellingborough parliamentary by-election earlier this year with an extraordinary 28.5 per cent swing away from the Conservatives.

The Wellingborough byelection saw a Labour win

Labour’s Danielle Stone is one of the three candidates.

The challenge therefore from Labour’s Danielle Stone is serious. And what of the Liberal Democrats, so often the county’s cash-strapped also-rans?

If they can get the committed Lib Dem voters out and if their former police officer candidate Ana Savage Gunn can hoover up enough disgruntled Conservative voters, keen on law and order but reluctant to vote Labour, then on a low turnout, they could make a difference. Savage Gunn has already been publicly endorsed by former Tory turned independent councillor Ian McCord. To the extent this has cut through, it matters.

Ana Savage Gunn is running for the second time.

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Given the likely low turnout and the transformation of the polls, there is a genuine battle on our doorsteps. So, on the eve of the poll, how have the parties done? Judging by CVs alone, all parties passed the first hurdle of selecting credible candidates, even if some were more last minute than others.

We have:  

• A highly experienced former Northants police officer Ana Savage Gunn (Lib Dem).

• A former Northants chief fire officer Martyn Emberson (Conservative).

• And a longstanding local councillor with a  deep understanding of the community Danielle Stone (Lab).

This is a good spread of candidates. The parties are to be commended.

Martyn Emberson is the Conservative candidate.

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There are multiple methods of fighting an election and usually candidates embrace the lot. Curiously on this occasion, the Conservatives have not. (We will come back to that). Let’s start with the traditional method of pushing campaign leaflets through letterboxes. All three candidates and their teams are doing this. It’s time-consuming. It’s hard on the feet. And on fingers too.

But how effective is leafleting from a campaign perspective? The sad reality is 95 per cent of everything that comes through letterboxes is bumph. Leaflets can sail seamlessly from doormat to the recycling with barely a second glance. But they do, at least briefly, alert voters to the fact there is an election on. Assuming they’re delivered.

Next method: Talking to voters, be it knocking on doors or setting up town centre stalls. Candidates, like monarchs, have to be seen to be believed. All three candidates are doing this. It can be effective. Former Tory activist Jonny Ball has spoken publicly about how Labour conversations persuaded him to back their candidate in the Wellingborough by-election. But it is once again time-consuming. It assumes people are in and want to talk. It’s tough even getting people to stop in town centres. At best you talk to a tiny, tiny fraction of voters.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, all three parties have gratefully embraced digital campaigning. So much less effort with potentially far greater reach. Stone has a good website. Savage Gunn’s starts strongly, it just needs some bigger photos lower down. On social media there are plenty of selfies of the candidates and their teams out and about in different areas. Labour posted some neat little videos. The Conservatives have some great photos but one oddity: some party posts flag that Emberson is a family man.

Just a quiet piece of advice here to the Conservative campaigners. The candidate’s family life should be a private matter. By citing it on your campaign material, you open up his private life to legitimate journalistic and public scrutiny. And it’s a heck of a hostage to fortune. Do you really need me to remind you how many political “family men” have gone on to get enmeshed in scandal? I stress there is no reason at all to believe this would happen to Emberson who is no doubt devoted to his loved ones -  but top tip – just don’t go there.  It’s not necessary. You have plenty to say on the issues. Stick to that.

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What’s interested me most are the hustings. Hustings are high profile events. In just one hour, candidates can pitch to a hall full of people – more than they could on a whole day’s door-knocking. Hustings that are broadcast are even better with a correspondingly greater audience. There have been three hustings: in Oundle, on BBC Northampton and on NLive Radio in collaboration with the University of Northampton. Labour’s Danielle Stone and Lib Dem Ana Savage Gunn have diligently done all three, arguing their cases fluently and courteously.

The Conservative Martyn Emberson, who is committed to visible leadership, has not attended a single one. Odd. As Oscar Wilde didn’t say: To miss one hustings is unfortunate, to miss three looks like a deliberate campaign decision.

I contacted all three parties about the campaign and specifically asked the Conservatives about the lack of attendance at hustings. Although Labour and the Lib Dems got back to me, the Conservatives said they couldn’t talk until after the election.

So, in the absence of any explanation, these are the arguments I think the Conservative campaign team should have made for attending each hustings.

The case for Oundle was strong. Lots of Tory voters live there. Fertile territory for Emberson, you would have thought and, given the probability of a low turnout, an opportunity to drive up the Conservative vote. But Emberson didn’t attend. 

The big one was BBC Radio Northampton, the Annabel Amos Breakfast Show, broadcast across the county. BBC local radio’s principal audience is people aged 50 plus, an important demographic for any Conservative campaign.

Older people are not only more likely to vote, they are more likely to vote Conservative. This, in campaign terms, should have been a three line whip. But Emberson was unable to attend. Presenter Annabel Amos told listeners, he had “an unavoidable personal commitment.” Let us accept that the candidate did indeed have an unavoidable personal commitment – something that was far, far more important than standing for elected office. Such (rare) commitments do exist.

But why not then, in those compelling circumstances, offer a replacement, to play Amber Rudd to Emberson’s Theresa May? Someone who could step in to argue the Conservative case? This was a golden campaign moment lost in an election where, as things stand, the Conservatives have no room for complacency.

The university hustings and Martyn Emberson’s empty chair. (UoN image)

And then there was the final hustings, the NLive Radio hustings at the University of Northampton where we had a lecture hall packed with students waiting for him.

Time constraints prevented Emberson from attending this one. It is possible to argue, from a clinically utilitarian perspective, that students are less likely to vote and, if they do, they are less likely to vote Conservative.

If campaign teams had to pick between the campus hustings and Oundle, they’d go to Oundle every time. But leaving aside the public good of engaging with young people – and Northants political parties are normally so brilliant at engaging with my students – there were other factors to consider.

The student hustings were being broadcast on the community radio station NLive Radio. Its audience is aged between 30 and 50. I’d call them young middle-aged. My students think they’re old. Either way, it’s a different demographic than the BBC audience but it’s still a demographic that votes. Local Democracy Reporter Nadia Lincoln was there to liveblog it too.

What were the time constraints that prevented Emberson from attending? According to Northampton South MP Andrew Lewer’s Twitter/X, Emberson was out canvassing in Delapre and Far Cotton that day, a hop, skip and a jump from campus. The hustings were between 3pm and 4pm, peak school pick-up time when any stay-at-home parent was most likely to be popping out.  

It was an ideal time to sit down for an hour on campus, with a cool drink, and get a free hour’s airtime. As the Conservatives were insistent that Emberson couldn’t make it, NLive Radio offered him the opportunity to come in the day before to do a recording. His campaign team agreed. But Emberson didn’t show. No explanation. No nothing. Bizarre.

A Conservative observer who was heavily involved in the previous PFCC campaigns is bemused.The last Conservative candidate (and incumbent) Stephen Mold, they say, would never have passed up the opportunity of airtime and Mold was far more assured of electoral success than Emberson. How curious.

Was the Conservative campaign team so confident of success that they didn’t see the need or so convinced of failure that they didn’t see the point? Both of those are, to be blunt, shabby excuses.

Democracy is not served if leading candidates bodyswerve events that pit them against their opponents and expose them to questions both from journalists and a public audience.

Regardless of the clinical calculations of how much it might or might not benefit your campaign, there is also the public good that candidates, would-be public servants, should recall.

The Police, Fire & Crime Commissioner is a relatively new political post. There is a duty to go out and explain it to as many people as you can: to the good people of Oundle, the university students, the audience of BBC Northampton, the audience of NLive Radio and readers of local news websites, all of whom were available in concentrated bursts.

Whatever the result tomorrow, both the Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates will know that they have done everything they could. The Conservative could have gone the extra mile. One final thought. This election campaign is the last Northants-wide election campaign before the general election. It’s been an important dress rehearsal. Let’s hope the right lessons are learnt.

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If you are planning to vote tomorrow remember to take your photo id to the polling station. NN Journal will be reporting live from the election count on Friday.

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