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Paul Crofts's avatar

Cllr. Martin Griffith, Leader of Reform, says net zero targets ". . are making everybody poorer’.May be he could explain this? All the evidence suggests that sustainable, green, energy production is cheaper and creates jobs and can mitigate the dusasterous consequencies of global heating which will cost billions in flood defences, loss of agriculture, etc. Since 2010 we (except the rich) are all poorer as a result of austerity policies. It's these policies that need reversing and we need to step up action to reach net zero.

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Dave Pearson's avatar

The 2024 version of Reform’s “Contract With the People” includes several statements about net zero that are false. I’ll take them in turn:

1. “Net zero means reducing man made CO2 emissions to stop climate change. It can’t. Climate change has happened for millions of years, before man made CO2 emissions, and will always change. We are better to adapt to warming, rather than pretend we can stop it.” Reform assumes that because the climate has heated and cooled naturally in the past the current heating must therefore also be caused by natural processes. It’s the same logic as “all cows eat grass, therefore all grass is eaten by cows”. The difference between natural and anthropogenic warming is how fast the rise happens. Ice ages occur in regular patterns called Milankovitch cycles. These cycles occur because the shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun, the tilt of the Earth on its axis, and the direction of the axis all change over time. These cycles do impact Earth, but on extremely slow (100,000 year) time frames. The amount of heating that the earth has seen since the start of the industrial revolution (1.5° C) would take tens of thousands of years to happen if the process were occurring as a consequence of these cycles. Until the industrial revolution we were in the cooling phase of the current Milankovitch cycle, gradually cooling to the next ice age over tens of thousands of years. Our dramatic and rapid temperature rise in the cooling part of the natural long-term cycle is evidence of anthropogenic warming.

2. “CO2 is essential for photosynthesis to enable plant growth.” It’s true that CO2 enables plant growth, but that’s not all it does. It’s also a powerful greenhouse gas. Its positive effects don’t make its negative effects magically disappear.

3. “CO2 only represents 0.04% of the atmosphere”. The unspoken assumption here is that since it’s only a tiny proportion it must therefore only have a tiny effect. If the other 99.9% of the atmosphere (Nitrogen and Oxygen) were also greenhouse gases then that would be a reasonable assumption. They are not. Neither gas resonates at infrared frequencies. The fact that CO2 is a tiny fraction is not relevant. The fact that it has increased by 30% in the last 50 years is hugely relevant because it’s now trapping 30% more heat.

4. “The UK produces only 1% of global CO2 emissions, yet China produces 27%”. If you own something made in China then you are responsible for some of their emissions. The UK was the first country to industrialise, and therefore carbonise our economy, so we’ve been polluting the planet for longer than anybody else. CO2 is very stable and stays in the atmosphere for centuries, so the UK bears a huge responsibility for the current levels of CO2. Saying to other countries “you should make huge sacrifices to decarbonise your economies, but we’re not going to bother” is hypocritical and untenable. We were leaders in causing the problem; we should be leaders in solving it.

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