Poll predicting Labour landslide says Northants Tory ‘safe’ seats face Reform pressure

The presence of Reform on the ballot paper could put the Tory ‘safe’ seats in Daventry and South Northamptonshire under real pressure, according to a new poll.

By Sarah Ward

Party leader Richard Tice (right) and Reform candidate Ben Habib (centre) at the Wellingborough byelection.

A new poll predicting a Tory wipeout in the general election has Daventry turning red and a neck and neck finish in South Northamptonshire if Reform stands candidates.

The poll, which has been put together by Survation and commissioned by Best for Britain, predicts Labour could win 468 seats to the Tories 98, as reported by the Sunday Times over the weekend.

The polling, which uses the relatively new technique of MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification modelling), suggests that in Northants, Northern Ireland secretary Conservative MP Chris Heaton-Harris will lose out to Labour and junior minister Andrea Leadsom will be run extremely close by Keir Starmer’s party if Reform, stands candidates in the area.

It predicts that if the party ( which is led by Brexiteer Richard Tice) fields a candidate in Daventry, it will pick up 16 per cent of the share, compared to 32 per cent for Heaton-Harris and 38 per cent for Labour’s newly announced candidate Marianne Kimani. With Reform in the contest the poll predicts Leadsom will beat Labour by a few votes.