After a decade of dominance, is today the beginning of the end for Northants Tories?

It’s been 4,109 days since a Conservative parliamentary candidate lost an election in Northamptonshire. Will that run end today?

By Sarah Ward

Photo by Elliott Stallion on Unsplash

On November 15 2012 Conservative Christine Emmett MP lost her bid to become the MP for Corby, defeated into second place by Labour’s Andy Sawford. Since then a Conservative candidate has not lost in any of the county’s seven constituencies and many Tories won their biggest majorities at the 2019 election.

But in the early hours of tomorrow morning, what was unthinkable just one year ago could happen and the Conservative candidate Helen Harrison could find herself in second place (or worse even).

Selected after her partner Peter Bone was removed from the job by constituents for his bullying and sexually inappropriate behaviour towards a male staffer, Helen Harrison has been hitting the campaign trail hard, but she has been largely alone. As reported by the Northants Telegraph, she has been without the support of the Conservative national party, with no big name backers and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been conspicuously absent.

Many locally suspect that is due to the selection process, which has left a bad taste for some, as Harrison was the only local candidate against two unheard of candidates, who did not stand a chance.

She has also not been given much of a hand in getting leaflets through doors by other Conservatives from across the county.

One Conservative councillor told us:

“If we lose the seat, it is going to cause a lot of concern and a lot of people out there are going to be considering whether to keep toeing the party line.

“They will be thinking of their own futures and what it means to be a Conservative in Northants.”

Another said that if Harrison does not win this byelection, they would still expect her to be the candidate again when the general election comes around.This is because of the grip that Bone and his supporters have had on the local constituency party.

They said:

“They [the local Conservative party] are fully bathing in the Kool-Aid. If they lose this byelection they will blame it all on the national issues and then carry on as before.”

Labour however is cautious about whether it can win having not held the seat since 2005, although it has thrown the proverbial kitchen sink at the campaign. It set up a main office in Wellingborough town centre emblazoned with photos of Gen Kitchen and sent down members from across the country’s constituencies to knock doors for her.

Its candidate has however been closely cosseted by the Labour Party machine - our interview with her was under a strict time limit and watched and recorded by a media officer. The whole roster of shadow ministers from the party has also visited to give her support, with Party leader Keir Starmer turning up in the constituency yesterday.

Will Gen Kitchen end the Tories winning election run?

Both sides think it could be Reform UK that could take the votes from any disgruntled Conservatives in the area - which was pro Brexit. Independent Marion Turner Hawes, who has a significant local profile and who was behind the Wellingborough Walks campaign, could also pick up votes.

Polling stations opened at 7am this morning and will close at 10pm.

The full list of candidates is:

• Jay Mala Post-Mortem - Ankit Love JKNPP

• Alex Merola - Britain First - Stop The Boats

• Will Morris - Green Party

• Marion Turner-Hawes - Independent

• Kevin Watts - Independent

• Helen Harrison - Conservative

• Gen Kitchen - Labour

• Ana Savage- Gunn Liberal Democrats

• Andre Pyne-Bailey - Independent

• Ben Habib - Reform UK

• Nick the Flying Brick - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party

We will be at the election count and will be updating our full subscribers with a live blog throughout the evening. Sign up here if you wish to receive the blog.